Quick Take
Over the last five years, the month of August has consistently exhibited a specific trait when it comes to Bitcoin accumulation.
The Accumulation Trend Score—a critical on-chain indicator reflecting the relative size of entities actively accumulating Bitcoin—has consistently registered at 0.5 or less. This score uses a scale to determine whether larger entities within the network are accumulating (reflected by a score closer to 1) or distributing/not accumulating (reflected by a score closer to 0).
The score considers the size of an entity’s Bitcoin holdings (their participation score) and the volume of new coins they have acquired or sold in the last month (their balance change score).
The consistent low scores over the past five summers signal that larger entities, or significant portions of the network, trend towards distribution or halt accumulation during these final weeks of summer. This pattern showcases a potential seasonal trend in Bitcoin accumulation practices.
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